Two years after the October 7 attacks by Hamas and the start of the war in Gaza, the Middle East stands at a crossroads.
Despite the immense challenges facing the region, RAND's Shira Efron sees reason for hope. “The main obstacle is fear and lack of trust,” she said. “While there are ideologue spoilers on both sides, the majority of Israelis and Palestinians want peace, but don't believe the other side wants the same thing. If we can address that, there's a path forward.”
Efron has spent her career at the intersection of research and policy, advising governments and international organizations on the region's most complex issues. In August, she was named the Distinguished RAND Israel Policy Chair. The chair was established by The Rosalinde and Arthur Gilbert Foundation and The Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation. In this new role, Efron draws on two decades of expertise in Israeli and Middle Eastern affairs to expand RAND's research on the region.
How would you describe the current state of the war in Gaza and the broader situation in the Middle East?
On the positive, when Hamas launched its attack on October 7, its intention was to ignite a multi-front attack on Israel—drawing in Hezbollah, Iran, and others—and thankfully, this vision did not materialize. Instead, thanks largely to Israeli actions, Hezbollah is crippled, the Assad regime in Syria is gone, Iran, as it turns out, is not 10 feet tall, and its network of proxies has substantially weakened. For the first time in decades, Lebanon and Syria have a chance of rebuilding.
In Gaza, there have also been major military achievements, with Hamas no longer being the terror army it once was, nor a governing authority, let alone an actor that can pose an October 7–like threat again. Despite these gains, Israel continues to pursue an elusive objective of “total victory,” with no clear strategy for achieving it. The continuation of the war—which the vast majority of Israelis and Israel Defense Forces (IDF) leaders oppose—jeopardizes these military successes. It pushes Israel further into global isolation, it pushes away Israel's European and Arab partners, and it makes it harder for countries in the region to focus on cross-border challenges and to partner on weakening radical forces.
At the same time, this war continues to take an immense humanitarian and civilian toll on the people of Gaza. Military accomplishments alone cannot succeed unless turned into diplomatic, strategic pursuits. That is true across the region, but most pressingly in Gaza. President Trump's 20-point plan to end the war could pave the way out. However, the devil is in the details, and we are far from both an agreement and an implementation plan.
Military accomplishments alone cannot succeed unless turned into diplomatic, strategic pursuits.
What key developments might indicate the direction of events in Gaza and the region moving forward?
While people across the region and the world hold their breath for Hamas's response to President Trump's proposal, the Arab and regional countries, who are on board with the plan in principle, want to ensure that their key national security interests are met. These countries—who are expected to send security forces to Gaza and fund the reconstruction estimated at over $50 billion—want to ensure that even though the plan calls for the establishment of an international board to help Gaza recover, the Strip will remain Palestinian with Palestinian governance. They also want to make sure that there is a clear timetable for the IDF's withdrawal. Israel, on the other hand, wants to keep those details vague and opposes in principle a meaningful role for the Palestinian Authority and any connection of the ceasefire proposal to Palestinian statehood. These gaps should be bridged, or we will lose an opportunity—which may not return in years—to end the war, bring back the hostages, and chart a pathway forward out of the morass in Gaza.
Another major development is the souring relationship between Israel and its Arab peace partners, such as Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and especially Egypt. Maintaining strong Israeli-Egyptian ties is crucial for both countries' security and for any future in Gaza, as well as for U.S. interests in the region.
As the humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsens, what do you see as the most urgent priorities for improving conditions on the ground?
Some immediate, practical steps could make a real difference. On the Israeli side, the bureaucracy around allowing aid into Gaza is very cumbersome. While Israeli security concerns are valid, streamlining the registration process for humanitarian organizations, addressing customs issues, improving inspections at crossings, and showing more flexibility on dual-use items could help. This includes rethinking nonsensible limitations—for example, not allowing meat or cigarettes to enter Gaza. These items are constantly smuggled and create another rationale for extensive looting. Lifting such bans could help get aid where it is needed, faster.
The United Nations also has a role to play—not just in advocacy, but in operational effectiveness. There needs to be more pragmatic collaboration between Israel and the UN to ensure aid reaches people.
Egypt, the primary gateway for aid, should also expand the road from the landing port of El Arish to Gaza and allow the UN to help monitor and prioritize aid there according to needs. At the moment, it is no exaggeration to say that no one in the international community has any visibility into the aid in Egypt.
We also need to move beyond counting aid trucks and focus on the fact that humanitarian aid is more than just food—it's also health care, sanitation, and shelter. For example, how can you make rice without a pot or boiling water? We need outcome-oriented solutions that address the core problems, not just the number of inputs.
What could be done in the immediate term to prevent further escalation in the region?
The most important step is ending the fighting in Gaza and reaching a ceasefire—likely one that starts as temporary but can become permanent. That needs to be paired with a plan for the “day after” in Gaza. Many agree on the key principles laid out in President Trump's framework, including a transitional administration, real reforms, and a political horizon for Palestinians.
Beyond Gaza, supporting Lebanon's government and helping it disarm Hezbollah could stabilize another flashpoint and help Lebanon recover from decades of crises. In Syria, efforts to stabilize and reform quickly to take advantage of international momentum are key. Sanction removal alone will not suffice without a more comprehensive strategy.
Regionally, Israel needs to be careful and preserve its national security interests but not overreach—like in Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, and of course the strike on Hamas leadership in Doha. It is in Israel's interest to advance regional integration and normalization. Overreaching actions undermine progress or at the very least delay it. This comes at a time when regional cooperation is needed to address cross-border challenges such as climate change, food and water insecurity, AI, and radicalization.
It is in Israel's interest to advance regional integration and normalization. Overreaching actions undermine progress or at the very least delay it.
What will be required for long-term, durable peace—not just in Gaza, but across the region?
Countries and their leaders in the region—like in Syria and Lebanon—are changing in ways that could improve the prospects of peace, and a natural change in Iran could help as well. Despite years of delusion that regional peace could happen without resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the events of October 7 have put this issue front and center once again.
While a ceasefire in Gaza is urgent and necessary, it will not be enough on its own. Both Israelis and Palestinians must accept that the self-determination of one people does not negate the other. This does not have to be a zero-sum game. Security and prosperity for one side does not have to come at the expense of the other. Building trust and ensuring security for both Israelis and Palestinians will be essential for any chance at lasting peace. It will also require building and strengthening institutions.
Israel needs to acknowledge that Palestinian nationalism is real, and it cannot foreclose on the idea of a future Palestinian state. That's going to be a hard sell, but when you frame it as part of a broader package—with regional integration, reforms in the Palestinian Authority, and security guarantees for Israel—you see much more support among Israelis. This means building capacity, disarming Hamas, and creating real plans for how to move forward. It's not just about declarations; it's about operationalizing solutions.
