Campaigning in the Grey Zone

This paper develops an alternative approach to campaigning against hybrid threats based on systems thinking principles. The paper's key innovation is to characterize grey zone competition as a complex adaptive system. This allows the central tenets of military operational planning to be refined based on systems logic. The result is a series of principles for campaigning in the 'grey zone' between peace and war, augmented by a guide to action based on three functions: understand, act, and adapt. Example campaigns grouped by relevant European nations provide real-world context and illustrate key elements of this approach. By following this path, the transatlantic community can move away from a narrow, limiting military-centric doctrine towards a systems approach better suited to countering hybrid threats in a complex world.