RAND Center for Climate and Energy Futures

Identifying Resilient, Sustainable Cooling Strategies for Los Angeles

Given the increased prevalence and severity of extreme heat, many policymakers are developing regulations on maximum indoor temperatures to protect vulnerable populations.

This project assessed the energy demand and climate impacts from different cooling strategies that could be adopted from LA County's proposed ordinance for rental housings. From this analysis, researchers identified climate-resilient and robust policies that align with long-term climate goals.

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The Potential Impact of Seabed Mining on Critical Minerals Supply Chains

Energy transition is rapidly increasing demand for critical minerals for batteries and other technologies. The potential emergence of seabed mining presents an important opportunity to introduce new supplies and suppliers of critical minerals supply chains, which are currently dominated by China.

This project characterized the potential supply chain disruption presented by seabed mining and assessed how current critical minerals-related policies and global partnerships may be augmented to capitalize on the opportunity for seabed mining to diversify critical minerals supply chains.

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Managing Catastrophic Water Supply Risks in Major Global Cities

Many of the world’s largest cities already experience water stress, and climate change means a growing number of people face the real risk that their city will no longer be able to supply water to all residents.

This project developed a decision support framework based on lessons learned from the brink: cases where, due to varied combinations of climatic change, population growth, overextraction, or pollution, cities have confronted near-catastrophic risks to their water supplies.

Through case studies, researchers sought to expand the knowledge base of available option sets, key constraints and considerations, best practices for justice and equity, and relevant inflection points for action.

Research Report

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Understanding Climate Transition Tipping Points

Social and economic tipping points that are triggered by the implementation of climate policies will likely have more immediate consequences than those of physical climate risk and thus will be harder to adapt to.

Researchers are exploring the conditions that can lead to transition risk tipping points, what transition pathways yield positive tipping points that minimize devalued assets, and how the thresholds for these events change depend on the scale of analysis and the region of interest.

Research Report

These CCEF research projects are currently underway.

Optimal Siting of Data Centers Considering Water and Energy Constraints

The rise of AI has increased demand for high-compute data centers, creating both economic opportunities and challenges for local communities. This project will assess the risks and benefits of siting data centers.

Using optimization modeling, researchers will identify promising locations based on economics, environment, infrastructure, regulations, and natural hazard risks and develop a siting model and visualization dashboard to help local decisionmakers understand the unique impacts of data centers in their communities.

Researchers

Additional Researcher

• Emily Hoch, Policy Analyst

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Circular Economy Blueprint: Strategy for an Efficient Energy Transition

The United States’ energy posture emphasizes security, strategic autonomy, and dominance, among other objectives such as climate-related targets. Circularizing the 21st century energy economy can contribute to these policy objectives by enhancing the retention and efficient use of components, materials, and value.

Researchers will examine and clarify potential roles for policy in developing a clean energy circular economy that facilitates cradle-to-grave management of energy technologies and evaluate potential benefits and trade-offs associated with different policy pathways.

Researchers

Additional Researcher

• Scott Behmer, Economist

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Balancing the Scales: A Social Cost of Carbon Approach to Evaluating AI’s Climate Impact

This project will quantify the net climate impact of AI using the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC), integrating both its carbon emissions and potential decarbonization benefits.

Using RAND’s SiSePuede model, researchers will simulate AI’s energy demands and emissions across varying policy, technology, and geographic scenarios, with a focus on the U.S., China, and the Gulf States. The analysis will inform policymakers about tradeoffs between AI-driven economic growth and climate goals, offering data-driven guidance for aligning AI and energy strategies.

Researchers

Additional Researcher

• Felipe De Leon, Assistant Policy Researcher

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Geopolitics of Energy in the Korean Peninsula

As the world’s third-largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fourth-largest importer of crude oil, South Korea’s energy system is deeply intertwined with global maritime trade and vulnerable to disruptions across key supply chain chokepoints.

RAND will engage high-level stakeholders of major Korean energy companies and utilities, the Korean Government, the US Energy Private Market, and the US Government in interactive, scenario-based discussions and games to identify and stress-test strategies that enhance South Korea’s energy security and economic resilience.

Researchers

Additional Researcher

• Rich Girven, Senior International/Defense Researcher