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Over recent years, the UK has committed to bolster its investment in the space sector, including in Earth Observation (EO), in its attempt to become a science and technology superpower. EO refers to remote sensing and in-situ technologies used to capture the planet’s physical, chemical and biological systems and to monitor land, water and the atmosphere. Beyond space, EO instrumentation technologies can also be used for measurement, optical imaging, global navigation, radar and precision machining with applications across a much wider section of industries. These include: agriculture, defence/security, maritime, medical/health, meteorology, oil and gas, rail and water sectors.
The UK Space Agency (UKSA) has a crucial role to play in helping to catalyse investments, delivering missions and capabilities and championing the power of space. The National Space Strategy (2021) has stated goals to grow and level up the UK’s space economy, as well as lead pioneering scientific discoveries.
In this context, the UKSA launched the Centre for Earth Observation Instrumentation (CEOI) to deliver programmes on EO Instrumentation and Technology (EOIP and EOTP) to help build UK capabilities in space R&D and support the UK in becoming a world leader in EO technologies. CEOI has awarded 52 projects so far and supports UK companies in applying to European Space Agency (ESA) missions. CEOI will distribute around £17.5m to EO R&D projects between 2023 and 2025.
RAND Europe, in partnership with know.space and two independent EO experts, Aravind Ravichandran and Luca Budello, were commissioned by the UKSA to evaluate the CEOI programme.
This evaluation aimed to assess the impact, delivery and value for money of both the EOIP and EOTP, differentiating between the two programmes where possible. The evaluation delivered impact, process and economic evaluations across both programmes, aimed at optimising ongoing delivery and making the case for further investment.
The project designed, developed and implemented a comprehensive monitoring and evaluation framework to underpin UK investment in EOIP and EOTP.
The evaluations were underpinned by extensive primary and secondary research, based on a robust and redeveloped Theory of Change.
This is an important opportunity as there is an increased importance in producing strong evaluations of UKSA programmes to inform operational choices. This project is the first evaluation to occur while the programme is still being delivered, and there is an appetite to use this work as a flagship for evaluation in UKSA going forward. Despite CEOI being a civil programme, opportunity for dual use might arise, as capturing value added for defence will help strengthen the case for the programme.
The potential impact of this evaluation is spread across 3 levels:
CEOI fills an important gap in funding low-TRL (Technology Readiness Level) UK EO projects and supporting their development to higher levels.
With an average project TRL progression rate of 2.2 points, CEOI is delivering value in supporting project teams to progress their EO technologies. Due to their focus on low-TRL projects, CEOI is also enabling wider access to the EO market among smaller organisations, diversifying the UK EO sector and promoting innovation.
The current CEOI model has advantages due to the level of stakeholder buy-in, programme transparency and support for international funding down the line.
CEOI’s match-funding model and collaborative approach delivers on ensuring ownership among stakeholders, while the team’s technological expertise and successful working relationship with ESA is key to promoting access to future funding and involvement in international missions. However, there are drawbacks of the current CEOI model, which merits the exploration of alternative delivery models. This report presents three examples of alternative delivery models.
It is too soon to determine whether CEOI will deliver good value for taxpayers’ money, though there are early signs of potential for substantial future benefits.
The real discounted (Present Value (PV), 2024/25) and attribution-adjusted UK benefit of the CEOI (Calls 11-16) is at least £30.2m to date. If we include expectations, the PV benefit of the CEOI (Calls 11-16) rises to at least £57.6m. Furthermore, many benefits of the CEOI are intrinsically very challenging to monetise, so any quantified estimates will underestimate the full benefit of the programme.
The CEOI’s funding support for low-TRL EO technology is vital for UK EO, and support at these development stages should be maintained. Adapting the CEOI model or expanding the programme to support higher TRL projects should not neglect this earlier development stage. However, there are also arguments for the CEOI to focus on supporting disruptive technologies and longer-term projects to prevent innovation bottlenecks in the UK EO ecosystem.
Sustaining or increasing funding for the CEOI is likely to deliver further value to UK EO. Project participants throughout this evaluation overwhelmingly argued for the expansion of the CEOI programme, although such upscaling is likely to come with challenges and trade-offs. The recent increase in CEOI funding has led to an increase in projects and innovation in the EO sector, but also to a significant administrative burden, coupled with annual budgets. Extending the budget horizon to two years would enable the CEOI to deliver more value to UKSA by enhancing the quality of project bids and M&E reporting.
Clear prioritisation of EO market areas is needed for the CEOI to support the UK's leading data analysis capabilities and fill other niches. For example, roundtable participants suggested focusing on UK sensor manufacturing and extending remote sensing from space-based to aerial and UAV technologies, aligning with synergies between UAVs and satellites.
Katie O'Brien
Dominic Yiangou
