Preparing for Great-Power War

A CM-11 Brave Tiger tank fires during a live fire Han Kuang military exercise which simulates the PLA invading the island, in Pingtung, Taiwan

Photo by Tyrone Siu/Reuters

NSRD conducts research across multiple disciplines to inform U.S. government policy decisions on critical challenges such as military technology competition, nuclear strategy and posture, and the economic and trade implications of geostrategic competition. NSRD’s four research programs undertake projects that contribute to this effort.

• What are Chinese and Russian perspectives on power, war, and domestic politics?
• What are the implications, for the Navy, of China’s military strategy and modernization efforts?
• Has DoD allocated sufficient logistics personnel and force structure to the Indo-Pacific area of responsibility to counter and defeat a peer adversary?
• Considering Russia and China’s evolving nuclear capabilities and doctrine, how should the effects of nuclear weapons be integrated into operational level wargaming?

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  China's Science and Technology Strategy

  From imperial hydraulic and astronomical systems to Xi Jinping's drive for technological self-reliance, China's governments have treated scientific capability not simply as an engine of growth, but as a pillar of political order, social stability, and national strength.

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  AI and Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Risk

  AI could reshape the chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear risk landscape. Developing a research roadmap may help mitigate emerging threats while leveraging AI’s potential to strengthen security.

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  The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Today and Beyond

  Experts gathered in February 2026 to explore the current state and future of the U.S.-Japan alliance following the "new golden age" declaration by President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

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  Exploring Duality in Space

  Dual-use space systems are technologies that can be used for peaceful purposes, but could also be weaponized. RAND researchers brought together experts from the Americas, Eurasia, and the Indo-Pacific region to examine how commercial, civil, and defense sectors increasingly overlap in space.

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  Could Sanctions Help Deter China from Attacking Taiwan?

  Restrictive economic measures are part of the toolkit to deter a Chinese attack on Taiwan but their timing, effectiveness, and desirability remain uncertain. Any sanctions against China will rebound against the countries instituting them.

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  How Might NATO Allies Respond if the United States Retrenches from Europe?

  RAND researchers explored the potential for grand strategies and policy alternatives to gain traction in the second Trump administration and examined how European allies might respond to these alternatives.

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  The Future of Maritime Presence in the Central Arctic Ocean

  Models predict that the Central Arctic Ocean may soon become ice-free in summer, opening a seasonally navigable route. How might global actors leverage new maritime access in the Arctic for economic, political, and military gain?

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  Anticipating Allies’ Responses to U.S. Retrenchment: Lessons from Limited Military Withdrawals During the Cold War

  The Trump administration has signaled the possibility of retrenchment, but evaluating whether it serves U.S. interests involves considering a variety of effects. RAND researchers analyzed one aspect of this broader calculation: how retrenchment affects the behaviors of U.S. allies.

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  How Allies Have Responded to Past U.S. Retrenchment

  A review of past instances of U.S. retrenchment provides insights into how allies might respond to shifts in strategy today. Cases of limited U.S. retrenchment from West Germany, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan in the 1960s and 1970s offer important lessons.