New Insights from the RAND National Security Research Division

February 3, 2025

by Charles P. Ries, Daniel Egel, Shelly Culbertson, David E. Thaler, C. Ross Anthony, Robin Meili, Mark Christopher Schwartz, Amal Altwaijri, Raphael S. Cohen, Marzia Giambertoni, et al.

On October 7, 2023, Hamas militants initiated a brutal attack on Israeli forces and ordinary citizens. More than 1,200 were killed, and hundreds of Israelis were taken hostage. In response, Israel launched a devastating air and land assault on Gaza, killing at least 40,000 people and wounding as many as 90,000. Much of Gaza’s infrastructure, including housing; hospitals; and power, water, and sewage facilities, has been destroyed. Food and medical care are now scarce, and disease is spreading. The ceasefire that took effect on January 19, 2025, only begins a process of hostage return and conflict termination.

The extraordinary costs and destructiveness of this conflict could be a hinge point in history, demonstrating the urgent need for a path to a durable peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Drawing on decades of RAND research on insurgencies, post-conflict stabilization, and nation-building, we considered the history of the conflict; gleaned lessons from attempts to resolve thorny conflicts elsewhere; and defined short-, medium- and long-term security, governance, economic, social, and international components of an enduring peace. Success would be transformative for the region, its peoples, and the wider world.

There are no senior leaders on either side advocating for peace, and support for peace among Palestinian and Israeli populations is limited.

Both parties view Jerusalem as inseparable. Settlements have encroached on the West Bank. And Israelis feel that land swaps will make them less safe.

The United States has lost credibility and lacks influence in the United Nations.

The interests of the Arab states vary, while the interests of other regional states and global powers complicate negotiations.

• Successful resolution of the Egypt-Israel and Northern Ireland conflicts highlights the importance of leaders who are willing to take risks for peace: e.g., Menachem Begin, Anwar Sadat, Tony Blair, and Bertie Ahern. Both cases also highlight the role that outside individuals can play: Jimmy Carter in Egypt-Israel and Bill Clinton and George Mitchell in Northern Ireland.
• East Timor shows the possible advantages of international pressure and the significance of geopolitical changes. After the end of the Cold War, the United States was finally willing to pressure Indonesia—its anticommunist partner—to let East Timor go.
• In the Balkans, Russia and China's tacit acceptance of Western pressure on Bosnia-Herzegovina has led to a more stable outcome.
• Russian and Chinese opposition to Kosovo's independence means that Kosovo's international standing remains precarious.

Effective security must be the foundation. Under the direction of a multinational coalition authority, an interim security force based on Western and Arab forces, supported by a vetted and trained Palestinian security force, can bring safety and security to traumatized Gazans. Over time, an effective Palestinian security force can take responsibility for law and order.

New governance concepts and arrangements must closely follow effective security measures. Governance should begin at local levels to boost participation and build a sense of engagement. An interim technocratic government would take responsibility over time for civilian tasks.

Economic strategies will depend on opening commercial corridors between Gaza and the West Bank; capitalizing a strong Palestinian banking system to help finance revival of the private sector; rebuilding power, water and transport infrastructure; and recreating cross-border opportunities for Palestinian laborers. Development of the Gaza Marine gas fields can support economic development.

Rebuilding Gaza's devastated physical and social infrastructure will be crucial. Success will require careful assessment and preparation, significant international assistance, local involvement, and thoughtful urban planning. Many Gazans will live in camps for some years. Special attention should be paid to designing these new communities in ways that are socially supportive and economically sustainable.

International actors will be decisive in pursuing the pathway to a durable peace. The United States should see its role as a process orchestrator, focusing in the short term on the international security force, the governing multinational coalition authority, and near-term stabilization for Gaza's civilians. The United Kingdom and the European Union, in association with Arab states, must provide substantial financial support for humanitarian assistance and longer-term development needs. China should be encouraged to play a constructive, significant role in negotiating and supporting the durable peace effort. Iran and Russia should be deterred from playing spoiler roles.

We found that there is a pathway to a durable peace for Israelis and Palestinians, but it will require leadership from within and support from without. A ceasefire is a good start, but only a start. The United States has an opportunity at this historic hinge point to broker this better future.

This summary is derived from Pathways to a Durable Israeli-Palestinian Peace (RR-A3486-1) by Charles P. Ries, Daniel Egel, Shelly Culbertson, David E. Thaler, C. Ross Anthony, Robin Meili, Mark Christopher Schwartz, Amal Altwaijri, Raphael S. Cohen, Marzia Giambertoni, et al.

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